Agent‐Based Recovery Model for Seismic Resilience Evaluation of Electrified Communities

In this article, an agent‐based framework to quantify the seismic resilience of an electric power supply system (EPSS) and the community it serves is presented. Within the framework, the loss and restoration of the EPSS power generation and delivery capacity and of the power demand from the served community are used to assess the electric power deficit during the damage absorption and recovery processes. Damage to the components of the EPSS and of the community‐built environment is evaluated using the seismic fragility functions. The restoration of the community electric power demand is evaluated using the seismic recovery functions. However, the postearthquake EPSS recovery process is modeled using an agent‐based model with two agents, the EPSS Operator and the Community Administrator. The resilience of the EPSS–community system is quantified using direct, EPSS‐related, societal, and community‐related indicators. Parametric studies are carried out to quantify the influence of different seismic hazard scenarios, agent characteristics, and power dispatch strategies on the EPSS–community seismic resilience. The use of the agent‐based modeling framework enabled a rational formulation of the postearthquake recovery phase and highlighted the interaction between the EPSS and the community in the recovery process not quantified in resilience models developed to date. Furthermore, it shows that the resilience of different community sectors can be enhanced by different power dispatch strategies. The proposed agent‐based EPSS–community system resilience quantification framework can be used to develop better community and infrastructure system risk governance policies.     

多层供应链外包模式的选择及其协调

本文研究由两个原始设备制造企业（品牌企业）、一个代工企业和一个供应商组成的多层供应链的外包模式选择问题。应用主从博弈和纳什博弈理论，当一个原始设备制造企业的外包模式给定后，通过对不同外包模型求解比较，给出了后跟进的原始设备制造企业外包模式的最优选择策略。研究发现：后跟进的原始设备制造企业最优策略应采取与前一个原始设备制造企业相同的外包策略。针对最优外包策略，还设计了使供应链达到协调的二部定价契约机制，提高了外包供应链的竞争力。     

英格兰数理精英教师培养及启示——基于“未来教学学者”计划

英格兰政府针对国内中小学数学和物理等学科专业教师紧缺、学生数理成绩较差的现状，推出了"未来教学学者"（Future Teaching Scholars）精英教师培养计划。这一专项教师培养计划旨在通过严格的选拔标准、系统的培养方案、丰厚的奖学金与助学金以及明确的教师未来职业发展规划，吸引高质量的本科生积极参与，从而提高英格兰数理学科教师的专业水平及学生的数理学科成绩。英格兰政府为改善特定科目和偏远地区学校教师质量而开展的专项教师培养项目为我国相关教师的培养工作提供了积极借鉴：创新教师教育培养模式，提高师范生教学实践能力；充分发挥地方师范院校的主体作用，保障特定地区教师供应；提高师范生选拔标准，促进教师队伍整体质量提升。     

企业资源配置战略与盈余持续性

盈余持续性是盈余质量的重要特征。较高的盈余持续性预示着企业的盈余质量较高,在一定程度上表明企业的经营状况平稳并具有良好的管理水平,有利于企业降低经营风险、提升公司价值。近年来,盈余持续性已经成为资本市场研究领域的一个热点问题。以我国A股市场2007—2017年非金融类上市公司为样本,对企业资源配置战略与盈余持续性之间的关系进行了实证研究。研究结果表明,经营主导型公司的盈余持续性要显著强于投资主导型公司;进一步区分具体的盈余构成后发现,经营主导型公司核心利润的持续性显著强于投资主导型公司,但其投资收益的持续性显著弱于投资主导型公司。上述结论表明,盈余及其构成的持续性均会受到公司资源配置战略的影响。相关研究结论既为公司资源配置战略影响盈余特征提供了经验证据,又对外部利益相关者透过战略本质看清会计信息的内在价值具有一定的启示作用。     

新时代网络空间意识形态话语权的掌控策略

新时代网络空间意识形态话语权呈现出话语主体多元化、话语载体多样化、话语内容复杂化的新特点，也面临着国内网络空间意识形态话语权争夺日益激烈、国际网络领域西方意识形态话语权渗透交锋不断、我国网络空间意识形态话语权建设应对乏力等新挑战。要掌控新时代网络空间意识形态话语权，就必须提高话语主体素养以引导网络意见领袖发挥正能量，拓展话语载体多样性以提升主流意识形态话语权的影响力，坚持话语议题守正创新以打造社会主义意识形态优势话语，推进话语表达方式转换以实现中国话语标准的“国际化”。     

“I feel and think,therefore I am”: An Affect-Cognitive Theory of management decisions

I propose an Affect-Cognitive Theory to comprehensively understand how decisions occur in organizations. To this aim, I first review the assumptions of sensemaking and decision-making streams of research, especially the influence of bounded rationality, affective states and their relationships with cognition; then, I integrate them on the common basis of socially situated cognition. This new theory emphasizes the role of affective states in determining/being determined by cognition and its errors, pointing out decision makers’ affect as the result of multi-level adaptations to the physical and social environment. Management decisions are path dependent but not immutable; they, indeed, bank on the predominant feeling resulting from the modifying interactions and regulations of decision makers with their physical and social environment. Here, decision makers are proposed as “emotional cognizers” overcoming the thinking-feeling dichotomy that has often featured in the study of management decisions. This theory is beneficial for behavioral strategy, offering the needed assumptions to intertwine human cognition, emotions, and social behavior.     

产能有限的供应商主导的双渠道分销策略研究

在供应商产能有限的背景下,研究供应商的最优分配策略和双渠道分销的问题。根据期望利润最大化建立供应商渠道分配模型,依据纳什均衡确定供应商的最优定价、最优产能和最优分销策略。结果表明,在双渠道策略的情况下,供应商应该优先满足销售企业的销售量。若供应链的销售量恰好得到满足,供应商应该按最优产能生产。供应商的渠道选择与供应商产能、供应链各节点的盈利能力和生产成本有关。     

The impact of social power and influence on the implementation of innovation strategies: A case study of a UK mega infrastructure construction project

Influence plays a key role in reaching consensus among multiple actors involved in project-based decision-making processes. While prior literature devotes considerable attention to describing influence, little attention has been paid to influence at the individual level of the strategic project manager within the context of megaprojects. This research intended to fill this knowledge gap by identifying and describing the influence strategies that a strategic project manager applies when implementing innovation strategies on megaprojects. A qualitative case study was used to examine the complex social processes involved in a major UK capital investment programme. The findings underline a critical subset of influence strategies, notably higher-management support, inspirational appeal and bargaining. The study proposes a utilitarian structure of social power comprising selective, supportive and executory power bases.     

罗兴亚问题对缅-孟关系和地区秩序的影响

罗兴亚问题是一个多世纪前英殖民者在亚洲埋下的诸多“民族问题”之一，也是孟加拉国与缅甸之间难解的“痼疾”。2017年8月以来，罗兴亚问题的再次爆发给相关国家造成巨大冲击。缅甸在打击罗兴亚暴力活动的同时，反对国际干涉，试图牢牢把握该问题解决进程中的主导权，而孟加拉国在政治、安全、经济和社会等不同层面基于自己的利益考量，寻求将罗兴亚人遣返缅甸，立场的对立使两国关系陷入僵局。而美国和印度介入罗兴亚问题则使地区秩序进一步复杂化，并在舆论和安全等领域影响中国的利益。2020年1月17日至18日，中国国家主席习近平应邀对缅甸进行国事访问，标志着中缅经济走廊从概念规划转入实质建设阶段，也给“罗兴亚问题”的解决带来新契机。     

Water cycle algorithm for solving the reliability-redundancy allocation problem with a choice of redundancy strategies

Abstract

This paper proposes a new mathematical model for the reliability-redundancy allocation problem (RRAP) with a choice of redundancy strategies. To maximize the reliability of a system, this model chooses the best redundancy strategy from among both active and standby ones for each subsystem. For those with a standby strategy, a continuous time Markov chain model is used to calculate the exact reliability values. In order to solve the proposed mixed-integer non-linear programing model, a powerful evolutionary algorithm, called water cycle algorithm (WCA), is developed and implemented on three famous benchmark problems. Finally, the results of different benchmark problems are compared with those previously reported to show the superiority of the proposed model and the efficiency of WCA.